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Economic News

The jobs report came out this morning and new job creation was 75,000 new jobs, well below expectations of 185,000. Unemployment stayed at 3.60 % and wage growth was at 3.1 % year over year, below expectations of 3.20 %.

Job participation rate remains unchanged at 62.8 %

 10 Year Bond Yield and Mortgage Rates

The yield on the 10 year bond is at 2.08 at noon today. That is down 32 bps from the last blog. The yield on the 3.00 % mortgage backed security is at 100.67 up 26 bps for the day... With some downs and ups for the week rates are pretty much unchanged from Monday.

 

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Posted in:General
Posted by Gene Tidgewell on June 7th, 2019 4:59 PM
Economic News
The US and China are still trying to resolve the trade issues. The two presidents plan to meet at the G20 summit the end of June. China’s economic numbers this week showed their economy slowing.

The stock market continues to fluctuate based on trump’s tweets about the issue.
If Iran heats up that may affect the markets. Syria seems calm for now and who knows about the Rocket Man.

10 YEAR BOND YIELD AND RATES
The yield on the 10 year bond is at 2.40 at noon today. That is down 6 bps from the last blog. The yield on the 3.50 % mortgage backed security is at 101.22 up 18 bps from the last blog. There was some improvement in pricing. Experts do not see much rate improvement in the near term. Who knows long term?

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Posted in:General
Posted by Gene Tidgewell on May 17th, 2019 4:12 PM
Economic News
The US and China are still trying to resolve the trade issues. Consensus seems to be China can afford this tariff war less than the US. Talks will continue and I believe they will work something out.
CPI came out today and there is still little fear of inflation which is good for  mortgage rates.

10 YEAR BOND YIELD AND RATES
The yield on the 10 year bond is at 2.46% at one this afternoon. That is down 4 bps from the last blog. The yield on the 3.50 % mortgage backed security is at 101.04  up 0.4 bps from the last blog.. Rates finished the week relatively flat from last week.

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Posted in:General
Posted by Gene Tidgewell on May 11th, 2019 10:03 PM

Economic News

The jobs report came out today and there were 263,000 new jobs added which exceeded expectations. The unemployment rate was 3.6 % which indicates tightness in the jobs market. Hourly wages were up 3.2 % over the same month last year which is good but NOT INFLATIONARY. The job participation rate declined .2 % to 62.8 %. This means only 62.8 % of the people of working age are looking for work or are working.

Since wage growth is not inflationary some analysts are calling for the Fed to lower the Fed Funds rate. On Wednesday Chairman Powell said the economy indicated neither the need to increase or lower the Fed funds rate at this time.

10 YEAR BOND YIELD AND RATES

The yield on the 10 year bond is at 2.50 %at two this afternoon. That is up 2 bps from the last blog. The yield on the 3.50 % mortgage backed security is at 101.00 down 0.4 bps from the last blog. Rates finished the week relatively flat from last week.

 

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Posted in:General
Posted by Gene Tidgewell on May 3rd, 2019 5:25 PM

Economic News

The GDP came in at 3.2 % beating expectations of 2.3 % lowering fears of economic slowdown. It did not affect mortgage bonds as it normally would have because consumer spending growth was not strong and inflation remained well below 2 %


10 YEAR BOND YIELD AND RATES

The yield on the 10 year bond is at 2.50 % at noon today. That is down 6 bps from the last blog. Two weeks ago.  Today the 3.50 % bond is up 20 basis points which is good for rates, to 101.04. Rates had gone up over the last 2 weeks but we have seen some improvement in the last 2 days.


FO
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Posted in:General
Posted by Gene Tidgewell on April 26th, 2019 4:21 PM
Economic News
Things had been pretty flat this week until China released some new economic date early today indicating their economy may be improving.  The Dow Jones is up over 250 points so far today and mortgage bonds and the 10 year Treasury have   gone the other way.

Next week we get some housing reports and the Fed Beige Book comes out. Probably not much from that as the Fed minutes came out this week and had no effect on the market. The Fed seems set on not raising interest rates this year.

10 YEAR BOND YIELD AND RATES
The yield on the 10 year bond is at 2.56 % at noon today. That is up 6 bps from last Friday. Lenders have switched to tracking the 3.5 % bond from the 4.0 % bond. Today the 3.50 % bond is down 23 basis points which is bad for rates, to 100.81.

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Posted in:General
Posted by Gene Tidgewell on April 12th, 2019 4:11 PM
Economic News
The jobs report was issued today. New jobs came in at 196,000 jobs, exceeding expectations. The February numbers adjusted from 20,000 upward to 33,000. Unemployment stayed steady at 3.8% .Wage growth was up 3.20 % over a year earlier down from 3.4 % in March, 2019.

The Job participation rate was down from 63.2 % last month to 63.0 %
Generally speaking people are breathing easier as job growth improved signaling that we are not going into a slowdown. The decrease in wage growth calms inflation fears. I personally do not like to see a decrease  in the job participation rate.

10 YEAR BOND YIELD AND RATES
The yield on the 10 year bond is at 2.50 % at noon today. That is up 82 bps from last Friday. Lenders have switched to tracking the 3.5 % bond from the 4.0 % bond. Today the 3.50 % bond is up 13 basis points which is good for rates, to 101.14

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Posted in:General
Posted by Gene Tidgewell on April 5th, 2019 4:30 PM

Economic News

The White House announced progress is being made in trade talks with the Chinese this morning. As a result the stock market was up this morning.

HUD has sued Facebook accusing it of housing discrimination which is prohibited by the Fair Housing Act. HUD alleges that by allowing advertisers to steer where their properties are advertised the information on the properties is not available to everyone. Many of these tech companies that are dabbling in the real estate industry need to be more aware of the laws governing the real estate industry.

10 YEAR BOND YIELD AND RATES

The yield on the 10 year bond is at 2.42% this morning. That is down 2 bps from last Friday. Mortgage backed securities were down 13 bps this morning. Rates remain good.

 

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Posted in:General
Posted by Gene Tidgewell on March 29th, 2019 4:47 PM
Economic News

On Wednesday the Fed announced that it will NOT raise interest rates any more in 2019 as it issued a dimmer outlook on the US economy. Three months ago they had planned to raise rates twice in 2019. The change is a result of lowered economic growth expectations for the balance of 2019 and 2020 in what has been the longest period without a recession in quite some time. In addition the European & Chinese economies continue to slow. The Fed indicated they would even lower rates if they felt that was necessary.
The central bank also said it will stop shrinking its bond portfolio in September, a step that would help hold down long-term interest rates. They have been trying to shrink their balance sheet shedding the US Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities they purchased during and after the Great Recession.


10 YEAR BOND YIELD AND RATES

The yield on the 10 year bond is at 2.44% near closing. That is down 16 bps from last Friday. Mortgage backed securities were up 23 bps this morning. Rates remain good and we saw some improvement this week, however it was not as much as expected.  


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Posted in:General
Posted by Gene Tidgewell on March 22nd, 2019 3:51 PM
Economic News

No need to go deep on any of the headlines. The China tariff deal is looking less likely to happen soon it's not really doing much for bonds.  As far as Brexit, unless investors were freaking out that Britain may move forward without a sure trade plan in place (not the case) there's no real effect on bonds either.

10 YEAR BOND YIELD AND RATES

The yield on the 10 year bond is at 2.60% this morning. That is down 2 bps from last Friday. Mortgage backed securities were up 9 bps this morning. Rates remain good and we saw some improvement this week.


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Posted in:General
Posted by Gene Tidgewell on March 15th, 2019 3:24 PM

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